This post is from August 2007. Facts and links may have changed since. See more from that month

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Six DF-31s?

The Economist (sorry, no bylines) states that China “is deploying six road-mobile, solid-fueled (which means quick to launch) intercontinental DF-31s …”

The Economist does not provide a citation, but six is an interesting number. (I don’t think it is from IISS, which has recently said eight—although perhaps the most recent edition has revised the estimate.)

Given the 3-3 system that that the Second Artillery uses from some launch units—“a missile brigade has three subordinate launch battalions, each of which has three subordinate launch companies …”—we would expect China to add missiles in sets of nine. For more on the structure of the PLA, I recommend the source of my description of the Second Artillery 3-3 system. Kenneth Allen and Maryanne Kivlehan-Wise, Implementing PLA Second Artillery Doctrinal Reforms.

I wonder if the DF-31 deployment process will look like the DF-21 process, where the first units went into the field in the early 1990s, but testing continued and deployments did not pick up speed until several years later.

Jeffrey Lewis

Writing on ACW 2004–2026

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis is the founding publisher of Arms Control Wonk.com. He is the Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. His also a non-resident affiliate at Stanford's Center for Security and International Cooperation and a Contributing Editor to Survival.

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