Chris Nelson has a depressing Nelson Report today. Apparently no one in the Bush Administration believes that Six Party Talks can succeed:
Recently, we heard a very highly informed Asia policy player, on background, explain and confirm that the basic Bush Administration assessment of the nuclear weapons situation in N. Korea is that Kim Jong-il will never give them up, period. That, this expert went on to say, is because of Kim’s reliance on retaining the support of his military, and because the DPRK military sees nuclear weapons as the only viable deterrent against a hostile world, especially the US.
To make sure we heard it right, we asked “you don’t really mean that it’s the assessment of the Administration that there is no combination of security guarantees and economic and diplomatic incentives which could persuade the DPRK military to accept a leveraged buy-out of the nuclear weapons?”
Answer: “That’s exactly what I mean.”
Another commentator, who Chris described as a well-known highly -respected observer, confirmed this assessment, arguing that SECSTATE has “shut Chris [Hill] down since November and now is firmly on the side of those who truly believe KJI cannot be brought around by anything less than a credible threat to his person/regime. In that case the [Six Party Talks] will be useful to work out the details of [Kim’s] surrender.”
… but don’t give yourself away, ay, ay, ay.