This post is from November 2005. Facts and links may have changed since. See more from that month

Article2 min read

It's Not About the Yellowcake

Jofi Joseph says something simple, sensible and overdue:

The Bush administration’s most blatant misrepresentation of intelligence was its claim that Iraq’s attempts at purchasing thousands of high-strength aluminum tubes was part of an effort to build nuclear centrifuges to produce highly enriched uranium for weapons. In the fall of 2002, the aluminum tube claim was the top administration talking point as President Bush made his case for war to the U.S. Congress and the United Nations. Yellowcake wasn’t really in the picture until well after Congress voted to authorize the use of force. Iraq already possessed considerable amounts of uranium and other materials required to make nuclear bombs, so an additional purchase from Africa wouldn’t make much of a difference. Without the aluminum tubes, however, Iraq could not enrich that uranium to weapons-grade fissile material.

The administration failed to disclose key dissents on this issue from U.S. government officials with great expertise on uranium enrichment programs. Both State Department intelligence analysts and Department of Energy centrifuge experts believed the aluminum tubes were likely intended for Iraq’s conventional artillery rocket program, not for nuclear centrifuges. The tube specifications, they argued, deviated significantly from those required for centrifuge rotors. And if the tubes were for centrifuge enrichment, why didn’t the Iraqis make a more robust effort to conceal their purchase?

Yeah, what he said.

For more backstory, you could do a lot worse than this paper by David Albright.

I am sitting in a greenroom, waiting to go on MSNBC. It isn’t actually green but peach.

Jeffrey Lewis

Writing on ACW 2004–2026

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis is the founding publisher of Arms Control Wonk.com. He is the Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. His also a non-resident affiliate at Stanford's Center for Security and International Cooperation and a Contributing Editor to Survival.

All posts by Jeffrey Lewis