This post is from August 2005. Facts and links may have changed since. See more from that month

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Russian Subs Just Don't Patrol Like They Used To

Hans Kristensen has pieced together a history of Russian nuclear submarine patrols over 1981-2004:

The Russian nuclear submarine force is far less active than during the Cold War. Since 1984, according to information obtained from the U.S. Navy, the annual number of extended patrols performed by strategic nuclear submarines and nuclear-powered attack submarines has dropped from more than 230 in 1984 to less than 10 today.

Hans also finds that Russian nuclear submarines now patrol much closer to Russia than they did in the late 1980s.

Pavel Podvig recently updated the order of battle for the Russian strategic fleet on his blog.

Eugene Miasnikov at the Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at MIPT has been calling for the USN to stop tailing Russian submarines on patrol, fearing an accident.

Of course, if the Russians essentially stop patrolling, that works too.

I am a heretic—for an arms controller—on the virtues of the submarine-based deterrent. I prefer land-based ICBMs, kept off alert.

You know, like the Chinese do it.

Jeffrey Lewis

Writing on ACW 2004–2026

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis is the founding publisher of Arms Control Wonk.com. He is the Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. His also a non-resident affiliate at Stanford's Center for Security and International Cooperation and a Contributing Editor to Survival.

All posts by Jeffrey Lewis