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What the F*ck is Don Rumsfeld Talking About?

Today’s Washington Times reports:

Mr. Rumsfeld said in a recent interview that unless measures are taken to halt proliferation, as many as five additional nuclear-weapons powers could emerge.


Just talking outta his ass, per usual …

FIVE? Which ones?

The most recent Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions lists five countries—Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea and Syria—but presumably Libya is now off the list and we aren’t planning on turning any over to Moqtada Al-Sadr’s Islamic Republic of Iraq. And didn’t Don already claim North Korea had nuclear weapons?

So what is with five? I count two: Iran and Syria.

But wait—this is not the first time Don predicted proliferation. In testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee. Rumsfeld warned:

In 1972, we knew of only five countries that had nuclear weapons programs; today we know of twelve.

I can’t fathom how he got to these numbers, by the way. In 1972, there were a lot more than five programs. Let’s do the math for 2001:

  • Five (5) inside the NPT: China, France, Russia, the US, and the UK.
  • Three (3) outside the NPT: India, Israel and Pakistan.

Leaving a total of four (4), presumably including North Korea, Iran, Libya, and the “now disarmed” Iraq. Maybe he forgot Syria (or didn’t know about Libya … or knew about Iraq). Anyway, after “disarming” Libya and Iraq, Rummy now says five new nuclear weapons states without drastic action.

So, here is a question for Rummy: How many new nuclear programs do you believe have begun since the Bush Administration took office? Or do you just make this shit up?

Jeffrey Lewis

Writing on ACW 2004–2026

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis is the founding publisher of Arms Control Wonk.com. He is the Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. His also a non-resident affiliate at Stanford's Center for Security and International Cooperation and a Contributing Editor to Survival.

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