Quote of the week:
“Nothing in his life became him like the leaving it.”
— Macbeth, Shakespeare (with thanks, once more, to Greg Govan)
Donald Trump leaves a trail of wreckage in his wide wake. The man is not well. His fear of loss has become our country’s loss. The danger he poses to our Constitutional Republic is so great that even Twitter, Facebook and Instagram have denied him access to their platforms. He nonetheless retains access to the nuclear codes. Just one person has the authority to authorize the use of nuclear weapons in the United States — even if that person demonstrates sociopathic traits.
Trump’s seizure of the Republican Party was a Black Swan event. It was enabled by two previous Black Swan events. One, the 9/11 attacks, caused the United States to lose its balance and fostered extreme impulses. Another, the Great Financial Recession of 2008, sharpened social and economic divisions. Trump’s last year as President was marked by the advent of yet another Black Swan event — the COVID pandemic.
Back Swan events used to appear once in a century. Once-in-a-century environmental catastrophes now occur several times a year. Black Swan economic and public health upheavals may now occur every decade. They have changed the landscape of domestic politics in many countries, inviting strongman rule. The United States has not been exempt from the anti-democratic impulses generated from economic distress and social pathologies — even to the point of domestic insurrection.
Much now depends on whether we have witnessed the high-water mark of Trumpism in U.S. politics. I’m inclined to think so, but I’m an optimist by nature. None of the pretenders to Trump’s throne have his vile talents of mobilization. Those who again seek to coalesce hate groups and bring them center stage will be penalized more than celebrated.
This begins with arrests and prosecutions for those who desecrated the Capitol building. Hate groups will continue to lurk in the shadows and plague our Constitutional Republic. Most will retreat to chat rooms; others will make pipe bombs. They can be progressively marginalized by a President who exudes decency and who pursues sound domestic initiatives.
If we mean what we say about the rule of law, then another impeachment in the House of Representatives is warranted. A Senate trial of a President that has left office is a different matter. There is not one day to waste on impeachment that falls short of conviction in a new administration dedicated to national recovery.
Even so, conspiratorial thinking remains a political fact of life, with especially deep hooks in the Republican Party. If the Party of Lincoln is to find its moorings again, true Conservatives will have to mount primary and independent/third-party challenges to incumbents who have disregarded their oaths of office. If, as a result, some of those who have aided and abetted the mob are defeated, the Republican Party will be on the road to recovery.
Course corrections will likely be modest, but at least they will begin. The pace of defending Democracy will be slowed by talk radio, the Fox television empire and its spawn that continue to drip poison into the nation’s bloodstream. We can defend free speech and Democratic values by shunning corporations that advertise on shows trafficking in innuendo and lies.
The worst ramifications of social media are now beyond dispute. One essential corrective for the health of our Democracy is honest labelling. Trump’s tweets weren’t “disputed”; they were lies. Labelling them as such does no violence to the First Amendment; to the contrary, mob violence is abetted by falsehoods. The recovery of our Constitutional Republic also depends on the loss of social media platforms to those who incite violence.
There are democratic rituals for sorting out and addressing the grievances of those left behind and those fearing further loss, but these rituals depend on reason and fact. Our business – the business of arms control – also depends on reason and fact.
Great successes in our business have occurred during Republican administrations, but the Republican Party has lost its way. Comparisons between Trump and Richard Nixon are striking. Nixon produced the first strategic arms control accords, while Trump, with a strong assist from Vladimir Putin, has left arms control on a ventilator. Nixon awarded the Medal of Freedom to Duke Ellington and created the Environmental Protection Agency. Trump awarded the Medal of Freedom to Rush Limbaugh, Devin Nunes and Jim Jordan, while shredding environmental regulations – even some that corporate giants urged him to keep.
Barack Obama recruited Robert Gates to stay on as Secretary of Defense by telling him, “What I know concerns me. What I don’t know concerns me even more. What people aren’t telling me worries me the most.” In stark contrast, Trump thought he knew everything. He was a stable genius whose neediness required constant reaffirmation. Trump knew very little about how to govern effectively and cared less. He skated blithely over foreign and domestic issues. He held an even more grandiose conception of executive authority than Nixon but was careless and bumbling about its exercise.
Joe Biden inherits the biggest mess since FDR switched places with Herbert Hoover. Our favored arms control agenda items will now compete for his time and attention. Like those working hard on other important issues, our preferred arms control agenda items will be affected by partisan divides. Absent significant Republican support, ambitious treaties are beyond reach. There are other ways to reduce nuclear danger.
No agenda item is more important in our line of work than changing the sole authority American Presidents have to authorize the use of nuclear weapons. After four years of Trump, the need for corrective action on this front has never been clearer. Many Republican office holders are likely to agree to the need for change. This can be accomplished after careful but expeditious consideration.
Many of us have offered good ideas about how to change the practice of sole authority. The Biden administration can do this by executive order, in consultation with Congressional leaders. I expect no less from the incoming President.