Quote of the week:
“In order to properly understand the big picture, everyone should fear becoming mentally clouded and obsessed with one small section of truth.” — Xun Zuang
The Punditariat will speak about winners and losers at the Singapore summit. There will also be endless exegesis of the joint communiqué and Trump’s offerings, especially the cessation of joint US-ROK exercises. My advice, freely given, is to be wary of scorecard commentary. This roller coaster ride will have many twists and turns ahead. How could it be otherwise with Trump and Kim Jong-un?
Rip up your scorecard. Instead, I suggest focusing on the big picture: Is another war on the Korean peninsula more or less likely? Have nuclear dangers grown or receded – at least for now? After the Singapore summit, it’s fair to surmise that the likelihood of a second Korean War has been greatly reduced, a war that could well result in the first mushroom clouds on a battlefield since 1945.
This is a significant gain and a marked change from the bellicose threats of the past year. Yes, Trump makes a hash of alliance ties, but in doing so he has created enough space for allies as well as competitors to improve ties with Pyongyang even if Trump or Kim does a U-turn down the road. “Maximum pressure” is in the rear-view mirror. North Korea has now become the destination of choice for Chinese and Russian diplomats. The South Korean President has tiptoed across the Panmunjom demarcation line, and deeper forays may be in store.
Is this good or bad for “denuclearization?” It depends on how realistic this goal is. The critiques of those who believe this is an unrealistic goal ring hollow — because even a perfectly executed game plan would fall short of this objective. No state has “denuclearized” since the 1990s, and I’d be surprised and grateful if Kim joined this club. Absent denuclearization, Kim can still relieve pressures and reduce nuclear dangers by not testing nuclear devices and flight-testing missiles. Consider this “virtual” denuclearization, since the longer nuclear-armed states refrain from nuclear testing and missile flight testing, the more the shadow cast by these weapons recedes. Is this a realistic goal? We shall see. These dynamics might already be underway thanks to the flurry of diplomacy set in motion by Trump’s instinctive decision to meet with Kim and the optics of the Singapore summit.