This post is from June 2006. Facts and links may have changed since. See more from that month

Article2 min read

Stand Down, Boys

The Flat Earth Society has a foothold in the Wall Street Journal editorial page:

It’s possible we’ll wake up to the news that Pyongyang has tested the long-range ballistic missile that is fully fueled and which U.S.
satellites have monitored for more than a month. If so, we hope we’ll also learn that the U.S. responded, as defense officials said late yesterday it might, by testing its newly operational missile defense system and blowing the Korean provocation out of the sky.

THE EARTH IS ROUND.

Why is this so difficult for people to understand? If the missile flies over Japan—as it would in a space launch configuration like 1998—then it won’t go anywhere NEAR Alaska. Ted Postol created the attached diagram that helps explain this apparently elusive concept (above).

Ted also suggests looking to see if the North Koreans have deployed ships in the expected impact areas of the first and second stages.

***

I was reading Joe Cirincione’s brilliant Think Progress blog post, Administration Responds to North Korea Missile Stunt With Missile Defense Stunt and I thought …

Go ahead, try to shoot it down, I dare you.

This is my challenge: We’ve spent $100 billion over the last twenty years, including $8 billion last year on “missile defense.”

Pentagon officials claim we have a better than 80 percent chance of shooting down a North Korean ICBM.

So, do it. I dare you. I double dog dare you. Shoot it down, because I say you can’t.

The decision to “stand up” the the GMD system is a transparently cynical effort to exploit the public’s concern about North Korea’s missile preparations for a missile defense system that cannot defend.

Keep in mind that the Missile Defense Agency’s Independent Review Team (IRT) opposed further flight testing on the grounds that unsuccessful tests would undermine its ability to deter.

And that MDA has more or less stopped deploying new interceptors to Fort Greely.

Nothing would expend the political capital the Administration is banking for missile defense like an unsuccessful attempt to intercept the missile. And believe me, if they get a shot, they will miss…

… unless the North Koreans are helpful and place a homing beacon on the missile.

Jeffrey Lewis

Writing on ACW 2004–2026

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis is the founding publisher of Arms Control Wonk.com. He is the Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. His also a non-resident affiliate at Stanford's Center for Security and International Cooperation and a Contributing Editor to Survival.

All posts by Jeffrey Lewis