Are we winning or losing the battle against proliferation? This simple question does not have a simple answer because bad headlines mask quiet progress. Since the 1960s, reports on the status of proliferation have almost always been pessimistic. It doesn’t pay to wear rose-colored glasses in this business, since optimistic projections can lead to broken …
Addendum on KN08
by | 2012-05-03 | 8 Comments
Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker have sent along an Addendum, following up on their original analysis posted here and which spawned so much press coverage. The issues it raises continue to be very interesting. I am embroiled in several very interesting discussions, one of which is occurring in the comments to my previous post, Real …
Real Fake Missiles?
by | 2012-05-01 | 42 Comments
The other day I joked that I am the Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation program which means, lately, I am the Director of the North Korean Nonproliferation Program. Yeesh. Many of you have noticed that Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker’s paper on the mockups garnered a significant amount of press attention, including a nice …
The Bomber Gap
by | 2012-04-30 | 16 Comments
There is a long history of deceptive practices and bogus military displays designed to project greater firepower than is actually available. In my military dictionary, this is known as creative deterrence, or deterrence on the cheap. A classic case in point occurred during the July, 1955 Moscow Aviation Day, which stoked fears in the United …
