Avatar photo97% Invincible

President Trump said each of the missile defense interceptors at the Ground-based Midcourse Defense site in Alaska has a 97% chance of shooting down a North Korean missile and that two would have a 100% chance. Statistics don’t work like that, at least that’s not how it was taught where Jeffrey and Aaron went to school. We …

Avatar photo“One Last Chance” for Pakistan

Quotes of the week: “Pakistan is now hoist on its own petard. Calling off cross-border terrorism in Kashmir would insure that militancy within Pakistan intensifies, while continuing to support cross-border terrorism would alienate Pakistan even further internationally.” —P.R. Chari, “Nuclear Restraint, Risk Reduction, and the Security-Insecurity Paradox in South Asia,” 2004 “Each country, as a …

Avatar photoUranium Fever

No, Hilary Clinton did not sell America’s uranium to Russia. Aaron and Jeffrey attempt to patiently discuss the Uranium One purchase of Willow Creek uranium mine, the US firm that bribed Russian officials to win trucking contracts, and why this particular conspiracy theory is so prevalent in American political discourse.   Links of Note: The …

Avatar photoThe JCPOA Will Not Kill Grandma With Cancer

The debate over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) can be pretty tiresome. Its not even a debate, so much as it is an exercise in political mobilization.  For the most part, opponents trying whip up opposition are content to repeat the same falsehoods over and over again, which work well enough to rile up …