The year ends on many somber notes – the election of Donald Trump, his modus operandi and appointments to senior positions, the push on Capitol Hill to expand national missile defenses and to once again explore space-based systems, and the…
Note to readers: A somewhat different version of this essay appeared at foreignaffairs.com on November 20th. Donald Trump becomes President when the global nuclear order is wobbly and arms-control agreements are unraveling. Nuclear dangers are growing along three axes – North…
Senator Bob Corker, the Republican Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, has taken issue with the Obama Administration’s decision to co-sponsor a UN Security Council Resolution and a companion P-5 statement reaffirming national moratoria against nuclear testing. This non-legally binding…
The belief system in nuclear deterrence makes the most sense at the most elementary level: nuclear weapons deter use by an adversary for fear of retaliation in kind. Deterrence therefore requires survivable nuclear capabilities. It doesn’t take much by way…
The United States is not going to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict. Allies who believe otherwise are attached to a fiction and a psychological crutch. But these allies have been badly spooked, first by Vladimir Putin and now by…
The next US president faces lots of questions relating to nuclear weapons and nuclear threat reduction. Here’s one: Should the United States unilaterally reduce strategic forces deemed to be in excess of the Pentagon’s needs, or wait instead for an…
With the Republican Party in tear-down mode, it’s no surprise that demolition efforts on Capitol Hill have extended to the Open Skies Treaty, which has impeccable Republican lineage. Nor is it a surprise that the demolition crew has gotten an…
One thing the Nuclear Enterprise and the Arms Control Enterprise have in common is overreach. With every incoming administration, one Enterprise or the other draws up ambitious plans. Hope exceeds circumstance. Overreach invites backlash. President George W. Bush and his…
The “Arms-Control Enterprise” is taking a beating as the “Nuclear Enterprise” is recapitalized. These trend lines have become starker during the Obama administration’s second term, mirroring the declining fortunes for arms control during President Bill Clinton’s last four years in…
As numbers-based arms control wanes, norms become even more important. Norms can be clarified in Codes of Conduct or established by customary practice. The most important norm in our field is the non-use of nuclear weapons in combat. Few expected…
