Authors

Joshua Pollack

Writing on ACW 2008–2025 · 162 posts

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IR-1 Estimates Revisited

[Update | Feb. 11, 2010. Estimates from the new ISIS analysis by David Albright and Christina Walrond, “Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program: Taking Stock,” now appear at the end of the table. The paper contains a number of different estimates derived…

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When Disaster Strikes the Capital

Above: The Presidential Palace in Port-au-Prince, after and before. Credit: Lisandro Suero Here’s how former U.S. President Bill Clinton, in an interview with Esquire, summed up the state of governance in Haiti after last week’s earthquake: The UN was, in…

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Declaratory Policy: An Amplification

The recent essay on declaratory policy by ACW’s own Jeff Lewis is one of those rare writings that brings the reader to think about a well-trodden subject anew. Jeff is onto something when he says that the representatives of a…

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Why The JASONs Carry Weight

The work of the JASON defense advisory panel — better known as “the JASONs” — tends to be taken quite seriously. Certainly, the conclusions of JASON’s scientists on issues related to nuclear warheads are followed closely in the arms control…

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Emilio Largo's Revenge

What better occasion than Christmas to ponder nuclear terrorism? According to a Dec. 19 story by Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt in the New York Times, the forthcoming Nuclear Posture review will be just as much about preventing nuclear terrorism…

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Bosworth in Pyongyang

[Maybe you had to be there.] After a day-long stopover in Seoul, U.S. special envoy Stephen Bosworth is now in Pyongyang for the first time in his official capacity. It’s a three-day trip, so it looks pretty serious. Is there…

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Estimating SWU with Expert Opinion

So what is the separative power of the IR-1 centrifuge, really? We’ve touched on this question before, sometimes in connection with Natanz breakout scenarios. Lately, it’s come up in connection with the Qom facility, a.k.a. Fordow (see: Iran: Compliance in…

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Iran: Compliance in Defiance?

Warning: Even more speculative than usual. The Iranian government has spoken: in response to the the rebuke contained in Friday’s IAEA Board of Governors resolution, Iran has defiantly announced that it will build another ten enrichment facilities: “We had no…

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The Vienna-New York Two-Step

[Update. I’ve come to the conclusion that the first third of this post is in error, alas. I continue to differ with the view of the New York Times that the resolution is “largely symbolic” — so far, it looks…

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Modified Limited Hangout @ Qom, MNSR

Now that the IAEA’s latest Iran and Syria reports have leaked out, the fun begins. The conversations last September in Tehran about the enrichment site at Qom must have been really something. Perhaps they went something like this: PRESIDENT: You…