So says the 1974 Special National Intelligence Assessment, “Prospects for further proliferation of nuclear weapons,” declassified the other day by the Bush administration. Avner Cohen and William Burr were able to get a portion of the document released in early 2006 under the Freedom of Information Act, but now the whole shebang is public.
I haven’t been able to find the text, but Haaretz has the best coverage so far of this breaking story.
Update: The document is available on the CIA’s FOIA page (thanks Allen!). It’s the fifth document down. I’ve also taken the liberty of converting the document to a .pdf file so it can be saved and downloaded.
Later Update, from Jeffrey As usual, the National Security Archive has been on top of the story since I was a child.