IAEA to Visit Arak
The IAEA announces, and ISNA confirms, that IAEA inspectors will be able to visit the 40 MW Heavy Water Reactor near Arak. I am deeply suspicious of this reactor—which looks a lot like the reactors that were used in India,…
Jeffrey Lewis
Writing on ACW 2004–2026 · 2,079 posts
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Iranian Bomb: Still 2010-2015?
I’ve been waiting for press reports to see if the much awaited NIE on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs has been completed and, if so, whether the IC has moved up its estimates on when Iran could, or is…
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Olli, Ali, Oxen-Free: IAEA-Iran Action Plan
IAEA DDG for Safegards Olli Heinonen is in Iran to draw up what the Iranian press is calling a “modality plan.” Just what our field needs, more f’ing jargon. The editors of the OED can barely contain their contempt in…
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Busboys and Bomb Scares
My Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative is hosting Joe Cirincione for a discussion of his book, Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons, Wednesday at 5:30 over at Busboys and Poets. Yeah, that’s right, Busboys and Poets over…
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Tunnels Near Natanz
Looks like the concrete overburden at Natanz may not be all its cracked up to be. About a year ago, I wrote that I thought the Iranian centrifuge halls at Natanz, although buried, were not likely to survive strikes by…
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Conventional Trident & Al Qaeda
As you may know, I have long argued that Conventional Trident is mildly pointless —I gave a talk to the National Academies of Science panel on global strike to that effect, based in part on a detailed case study of…
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We're Back
Sorry about the long pause, folks. We are now, more or less, back to normal after an extended 4th of July weekend on the Cape. So much has happened over the past week that I need to cover: Hans Kristensen…
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NORK Solid Fuel SRBMS?
Today, I came across this declassified document with what must be the worst illustration in the history of intelligence community products (above). Yikes. The recent stuff by NASIC is much better, though not exactly Bonestell Anyway, I came across this…
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UNMOVIC Passes Into the Night
Friend of wonk Jackie Shire sends along this lament about the passing of the much maligned UNMOVIC: With a whimper … Jacqueline Shire I should be in a good mood—it’s Friday and I have family coming this weekend for several…
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A Conversation with Mark Hibbs
I’ve kept up an e-mail conversation with Mark Hibbs on-and-off for that past couple of years. So, I was really psyched to meet him in person at this year’s Carnegie Conference. Apparently, I am not the only one. With a…