ArmsControlWonk.com

During a recent conference, where I was subjected to what I considered some knuckle-dragging commentary on deterrence, I created a fictional character that I called The Cold War Troglodyte, pictured above.

Well, turn-about is fair play. I will be giving my own talk at which you can draw silly pictures of me and my ideas — based on my review essay for the Bulletin on minimum deterrence.

I will be at the Cannon House Office Building Monday. Here are the details:

The RAND Corporation invites you to attend a panel discussion

Deterrence: Past, Present, & Future

Panelists:
Austin Long, RAND Corporation
Jeffrey Lewis, New America Foundation
David Mosher, RAND Corporation
Moderated by David Ochmanek, RAND Corporation Monday,

November 17, 2008
11:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. 210
Cannon House Office Building
Light refreshments will be provided
Register

As we transition towards a new administration with new and unique challenges the issue of deterrence, specifically nuclear deterrence, is certain to be one of the topics of discussion. The nature of the challenges posed by nuclear-armed adversaries has changed significantly since the end of the Cold War and the prospect is for continued change should countries such as North Korea and Iran succeed in acquiring deliverable nuclear arsenals. In light of these shifts, traditional approaches to preventing nuclear use will be found wanting: New approaches are called for and with them will come the need for new military capabilities and postures. This panel will explore several issues at the heart of this dynamic set of challenges. These include:

~Enduring roles for nuclear weapons and future needs for nuclear deterrence
~The desirability and feasibility of a transition to zero nuclear weapons
~Deterrence of non-state actors
~Challenges posed by nuclear-armed regional adversaries
~Options for a new round of arms control with Russia
~Conventional forces and deterrence
~Deterrence and constrained Defense budgets

Please register online or contact Kurt Card at kurt_card[at]rand.org or 703-413-1100 ext. 5259.

Jeff is lucky to be out of town. It’s bad form to crow about one’s own work, but those of us gathered around the campfire while he’s in Seoul can certainly do it for him.

Monday’s New York Times carries a story by Broad and Sanger about the Swiss Family Tinner, how the CIA flipped the Tinners to bring A.Q. Khan low, the sabotage of Iran’s (and Libya’s) centrifuge programs, and how the Swiss authorities were swayed to destroy the evidence in the Tinner case. It’s a good, juicy piece that ties a number of things together.

Some of it should sound familiar, too.

• Jeffrey Lewis, July 30, 2006: Urs Tinner

• Paul Kerr (@Totalwonkerr.com), Jan. 18, 2008: Iran on Centrifuges

• Jeffrey Lewis, May 30, 2008: Swiss Shred Tinner Docs; Khan Talks