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I’m currently doing some reading on nuclear power in the Middle East. As is my (and many Wonk readers) wont I like trying to find the places I read about on Google Earth.

Finding Inshas, Egypt’s nuclear research centre, has been something of a challenge. Indeed, FAS has had similar problems:

The precise location of this facility is uncertain, which is rather peculiar, given that it is a publicly acknowledged and well attested installation.… The NRC Nuclear Fuel Laboratory is located at 30°15’N 31°25’E, according to the IAEA. However, it is evident from TerraServer imagery that these coordinates are incorrect, since there is only empty desert at this location.

With the aid of Google Earth the point identified by the IAEA can be seen to be just north east of the large complex shown in the picture below.

Could this be Inshas? Maybe the IAEA just rounded its figures when reporting the location of Inshas? It’s clearly some kind of industrial complex and the tall building (or should that be box, Jeffrey?) at “30°14’35.97“N, 31°24’49.65“E”::http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/file_download/112/Inshas.kmz is plausibly a research reactor. But, if it is Inshas, it’s odd that there’s not a single comment from the Google Earth community about this site. Moreover, the site is only 26 km from the centre of Cairo (not 40 km or 60 km as variously reported).

Your thoughts, as always, are welcome…

In other Google Earth news, the docks at Faslane (the UK base where the Vanguard-class boomers are based) are no longer blurred out. I’m not sure when it happened (it’s probably been a year or so since I last looked) but I am pleasantly surprised. Given the UK is a party to the Open Skies Treaty, it was a pretty futile move in the first place.

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Should I be uneasy that six countries have recently expressed a newfound interest in nuclear energy?

The Middle East Economic Digest, which a number of the other news sources like The Times are referencing, quotes IAEA deputy-director general Tomihiro Taniguchi speaking about the energy interests of several Middle Eastern countries:

Some Middle East states, including Egypt, Morocco, Algeria and Saudi Arabia, have shown initial interests to use nuclear power primarily for [water] desalination purposes,” Tomihiro Taniguchi, deputy director-general of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told MEED on 31 October. “This [the interest] is at a tertiary stage and the main driver is the use of a more efficient energy system. We have held preliminary discussions with these governments. We will offer them help under our technical advisory programme to conduct a study for the [proposed] power plants.”

Industry sources say that two more Middle East states – the UAE and Tunisia – have also shown interest in pursuing similar plans. However, interest from these countries is said to be still at a “rather infant” stage.

According to Taniguchi, the Arab governments may opt to build atomic power plants with capacity of 100-300 MW. “This seems to be the intention. We do not know if it will be cost-effective, given that the economies of scale favour the construction of larger capacity,” Taniguchi said. “It takes about six-to-seven years to install new capacity on a fast-track lump-sum turnkey basis.” The lead time to build a nuclear power plant with capacity of 500-1,000 MW, including reactors, is about 10 years.

Egypt has even checking out the options. (Russia, of course, and China too).

In September, both Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his son Gamal Mubarak called for Egypt to renew its pursuit of a nuclear energy program. The Egyptian program was shut down in 1986. (Bob Einhorn has a chapter on Egypt’s nuclear ambitions in The Nuclear Tipping Point).

Last week, Mubarak visited Russia to discuss a wide range of questions, but one of these was of course the purchase of nuclear reactors. Egypt is currently planning to build 4 reactors. The Russians were eager—Boris Alyoshin, head of the Federal Industry Agency, said Rusia would bid for the Egyptian contract and expressed confidence Russia’s chance of winning the tender. At the same set of meetings, the two countries also agreed (article in Russian ) to the construction of a Russian industrial zone in Egypt that will be used for high tech businesses, such as production of airplane and automotive parts.

There is nothing necessarily wrong about pursuing nuclear energy. After all, many countries such as Japan and South Korea operate nuclear reactors purchased from other countries.

Still, it’s not comforting when a host of countries, in an obviously volatile region, seem to simultaneously decide to emphasize nuclear energy just as the US is desperately trying to constrain the Iranian program.

I was about to toss and turn all night in anguish, and then I read that these countries have also been pursuing studies and assistance resquests with the IAEA on nuclear desalination for over a decade.

So maybe we can all sleep soundly after all? And maybe the folks with ideas on fuel supply garantees and international fuel banks should kick it up a notch, just in case?

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The very image of reliability ...

Well now that Michael Roston’s called me out, I feel the need to say something about this Washington Times editorial about Egypt.

In short, it’s bad for many of the same reasons as this other right-wing article about Egypt’s alleged nuclear weapons program.

The Washington Times does acknowledge that the IAEA is investigating the matter. But rather than, you know, waiting for the results, the Times carries on with a bunch of alarmist silliness. For example, it talks about a bunch of Egyptian weapons activities that don’t exactly point to a bomb-in-a-basement program (e.g. their ballistic missile programs).

Additionally, the piece mentions that:

Egypt has been quite open in defending the right of Arab nations to develop weapons of mass destruction in order to counteract Israel’s presumed nuclear deterrent (an odd formulation indeed, given the fact that the Arabs have been the ones starting the wars). At a 1989 Chemical Weapons Conference in Paris, for example, Egypt said these weapons were necessary to counterbalance Israeli nukes. In October 1998, President Hosni Mubarak said that Egypt reserved the right to acquire nuclear weapons.

“The last thing on our mind ...”

This, of course, ignores several pesky facts:

1. Chemical weapons are not nuclear weapons.

2. Israel likely has a chemical weapons program, in addition to its nuclear weapons.

3. The Mubarak quote, though not sourced, is likely taken out of context from an interview the president did with Al-Hayat. I don’t have the full interview, but a 5 October 1998 AFP article quotes Mubarak saying:

Currently we are not thinking of entering the nuclear club because we don’t want war … When the time comes and we need nuclear weapons, we will not hesitate. But I say if we need it because it is the last thing on our mind.

[Late Update: Here is the full text of the interview, becuase I do have such sweet skills. ACW]

The Times also ignores the fact that Mubarak made several anti-nuclear weapons statements just in that very same year.

Obviously, Egypt’s nuclear activities should be investigated. But right wing opinion writers need to get sweeter skills.

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