North Korea has announced that it will return to negotiations. The six party talks could resume sometime in the next two months. Up to now, North Korea’s line has been that it will return to the talks if the US drops sanctions, particularly on financial institutions, and holds direct talks in Pyongyang. This announcement shows that they have had to back down from this position. The US response, that it would be willing to discuss the financial sanctions during negotiations, appears to be less of a compromise. (The issue of US financial sanctions is a complicated question which Jeffrey or I will try to tackle in the next few days.)

So why did North Korea have such a sudden change of heart?

One possibility is pressure from China, but it is not clear exactly what China threatened. Some news sources are saying it was oil supplies. (North Korea gets 90% of its oil from China.)

Korea Times suggests China threatened to cut of oil supplies:

What pushed Pyongyang back to dialogue table might be Beijing’s reported threat to cut oil supply and Seoul’s reconsideration of engagement policy.

Seattle Times cites a Reuters report that China already cut oil supplies in September in response to NK’s missile test, and may have threatened something even harsher:


Sleuthing by the Reuters news agency turned up the fact that China had pinched off the supply line in September after North Korea tested a missile in July. Chinese officials warned Kim Jong Il’s regime not to follow up with an announced test of a nuclear device, but North Korea did so on Oct. 9.

[snip]

The biggest mistake of all was embarrassing China after it had counseled its economic ward to back away from a nuclear test.

If the oil spigot was turned off in September, one can only imagine what was done or coldly threatened after the October blast. Kim may only be scurrying back to the table to forestall tough international sanctions. Or, more likely, China quietly and clearly laid down the law to Pyongyang.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said that trade with North Korea has been continuing normally, and pointed out that the oil supply data deals with September, not the period after the nuclear test.

Chinese oil trade data released on Monday indicated that in September China sent no crude to North Korea. The North relies on China for nearly all its oil, but has strained long-standing ties by test-firing missiles in July and then staging its first nuclear test on Oct. 9—both despite public pleas for restraint from China’s leaders.

But Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao denied the September oil fall augured a squeeze on impoverished and energy-famished North Korea.

“China’s ordinary economic and trade dealings with North Korea have been continuing normally,” he told a regular news briefing, noting that the September trade numbers did not cover the period after Pyongyang’s nuclear test.

Or, is North Korea perhaps trying to avoid the recently passed UN sanctions? Japan immediately announced that it will continue its sanctions on North Korea. However, China South Korea previously hesitated on enforcement. Even after Secretary Rice’s visit to Moscow, Russia also appears to be moving slowly on implementing sanctions. It is possible that the enforcement of sanctions will wither with the delight that NK wants to talk again. Perhaps Kim Jong Il thinks that here is a good way to avoid punishment.

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As a side note, I rather dislike headlines such as, Breakthrough: North Korea agrees to talks. Breakthrough? Maybe we should save that word for when something gets resolved, or even partially resolved? This really limits future word choice…”Success: North Korea still at the talks,” or “Quantum leap: North Korea may someday sign agreement.”